The Three Best theories of Stock Market
Always the looser in the market is small investor; the large investment groups can able to tolerate any large crisis with their huge investment and large data available about various companies they invested.
But I am giving some fundamentals so that every one can basically understand about market and may avoid the investment failure:
1) Rotation theory:
considering the last 30 years experience the market changes can be divided into cycles, each cycle ends with a large raise and deep possible bottom. In the last three decades the market forms 6-cycles each of 5-years. They are 1978-1983, 1983-1988, 1988-1993, 1993-1998, 1998-2003, and 2003-2008. So the market is going to its peak for every 5 years. So we should invest at 1st or 2nd year of a cycle and make profit at either 4th or 5th year.
2) Opposite investment pattern:
The large winners of the market like buffet and Templeton follow this rule. There winning is not a big secret, it is simply thinking opposite to others. When all are fear of market and investment, they make investment and when all are entering into market with good hopes, they sell their shares and make profits. Investors following this rule never made loss in market.
3) Market PE:
Most of the small investors are entering into market just before the fall and they are making heavy losses. Market-PE can be used as a device to know the exact point to invest. Considering the last 30 years the market never goes below the PE=10 even it is going below it, it is strongly rebounding above 10 PE and reaching maximum of 25 PE. So we should invest around the 10 levels and sell around 25 PE.
Our country had the second financial system that is rapidly growing in the world, for every 6 years our financial growth is nearly doubling, if it continues like this we may achieve GDP of 30 lakh crores dollars in 2038. For this market capitalization should be 50000. So our BSE-sensex may go to 50000 mark in near future. So its wonder time for long-term investors to invest at any time present now.
The Best Time To Start Investing in markets
But always remember these three fundamentals:
- Never invest all your money at a time in markets (instead follow sip)
- Start investing as quickly as possible.
- Keep your investment in market as long as possible.
Accumulating earned money and investing at a time in market is never preferable; can you tolerate if market suddenly falls just after you invested? So regularly invest you money whenever available, following systemic investment pattern.
Never wait expecting good days in market. No one can analyze before a good period, but all came to know it’s a good period, after the game ends. Staying out of market is really a loss in these cases.
Long-term investors, who taken back their investments even in recession period had also with good profits. Because “ loss by bears” is very low compared with “ profits by long-term bulls”. So keep stay long in markets as far as possible.
I think you understand what’s the real importance of the investing as quick as possible, if analyzed these fundamentals under depth. So start your investment today… Now…
Short Selling and Short Covering Of Shares
Short selling is selling of shares according to CMP (current marketing price) in a intraday market, that actually we not bought or holding.
Short covering is the actual buying of shares in markets to sustain the sell units that are virtualized before.
Traders do short selling, when they expect a downfall of stock prices. Hence heavy short selling is followed by a bear stock market and the share prices presumably decreases.
Short covering indicates a positive sentiment in stock markets. Hence a strong bull rally may occur in stock markets.
The following example illustrates how being profitable from short covering from short selling and short covering:
- Traders expect a fall in stock markets.
- He sells 1000 shares of X company at current marketing price of Rs.100/-, that we doesn’t actually bought.
- As expected market falls.
- Assume the CMP of share price is fallen to Rs.70/- and booked profits.
- His profit is 100-70 = 30 per share. Final profit may include brokerage charges and other expenses.
But always short selling and short covering were not possible in cases like:
- Trading volumes are far less than our margin available.
- Large percentage of share re holding by promoters.
- Floating vale of shares is very less.
For the above instances a new term “Renting” of share is illustratable. Where a trader rents the share from holded persons or companies, he short sells the share and at final session short covers. Finally he handover the rented shares along with little rent or interest to respected investors or company.
Below are the available options to rent or borrow the shares for short covering:
- Mutual fund houses.
- Insurance companies
- Company promoters
- Long-term investors.
Observe Trading Volumes while buying shares
Number of Shares Exchanged through exchanges (both buy and sell confirmations) is called as Day’s Total Trading Volume.
Trading Volume Depends on various aspects like
- Total capital, free shares of company available.
- Activity Promoters and Chief Stakeholders of Company
- Investors’ Interest on that company shares.
- Any news or rumor about the company.
Negative Hint Of Trade Volumes:
A negative news precluded with very large traded volumes indicates rapid vanish in share price and vice versa. For example after scam Satyam computers, more than 90% share value vanished out with immense trade volumes never seen before.
Caring While Investing In Low Trading Volume Shares:
Investors should take utmost care while buying very low trading volume shares. Suppose an example, if you bought 3000 SHARES from an industrial company X. considering Trading Volumes as 1000. Then, you must stay for a lot of trading sessions to sell your shares. Hence investing in this type of shares is never recommended nevertheless in a carefully analyzed trusted company with maintenance of good balance sheet.
Investing Based On Trade Volumes:
Investing based on trade volumes analysis includes buying of shares whose Value is Either Constant Or Little Rising from many trading sessions along With Continuous Adding Up of Trading volumes. For Intra-day Market Investors observing of trade volume grids is best way of analyzing Intraday and Short term market progress.
following systemic pattern for your investments
Time As A Key Factor Of Investment:
The value of Time in Investment is a Key Factor, But Systemic Disrupts some valuable time, Then how systemic investment is recommended? Considering an example of Recession period, where investors are losses crores of rupees in their shares invested far before or just before that point (some financial months) of recession. One that invests all portfolio before recession victims high, while those systemic followers invested a part of total capital risking less and ultimately losing less.
Saying another way, Systemic Traders Are Conditional, although they are not perfect Analyzer’s or Super experienced investors. Because systemic technique it-self follows different analysis strategies and experiences.
Its Not Risk Free, But Risk Tolerable:
Systemic investment is not risk free, but makes player of its risk tolerable, one of the requirements in stock markets investment. Even larger players of Investment Companies also solely follows systemic investment pattern.
Different stock Sectors in markets for Investment
As “Bad news for stock indices is not a bad news for all sectors”, this pattern greatly declines characteristic risk in stock markets. So it is an important approach of investment for funds and small players.
Sectors And Diversified Investing:
Sectors like Reality, Banking, FMCG, Oil and Gas, Infrastructure, Capital Goods, Pharma, Information Technology, Automobile, Entertainment are important categories for investment.
Considering the Recession and Stock Market Crash occurred in 2008 among world stock indices, the sectorial diversified investment furnishes less losses compared to single sector investment practices.
For example, the reality shares are worse effected sectors, compared to many other sectors. While the health based sectors are fascinators with modest losses. Here the diversified sectors investment guard from utmost losses.
A second aspect:
Visiting positive side, a sudden Economic Issue may show no effect on all sectors except one that acquire profundable benefits, again the sectorial investment strategy yields maximum profits.
Sectarian Portfolio:
The next is How To Divide Investment Portfolio Into All Sectors? Can I invest in Variable Ratios or on Equilibrium Ratios in the midst shares of selected sectors?
My suggestion is to follow Ratio-Based Investment according to future analysis and total capital and expected future capital of choice sectors. Then next step is to invest according to analyzed portfolio, making an Equi-Balanced Diversified Sectorial Investment.
Also risk appetite investors consider Single Sector Investment Pattern posing returns of Either Sided (Good profits or high losses), this strategy greatly reduces risk of investment while treating with a Defensive Sector. For example, Investors of Banking, Pharma Or Health Care were superiorly defensive in reducing risk; also the returns are less compared to investment in other sectors.
On Observation Some Sectors Best Performing, Why Not I Invest Only In Shares Of Those Sectors? Surely, But “Today’s Best Performers May Be Future Worst Losers”, No one expects. Hence always follow a Systemic Investment Pattern in all appropriate sectors as my final justification. Stimuli given by single share of particular sector can able to drive up all the sectorial shares. For example, a Good Quarter Results Announced by Infosys can stimulate a Rally in all IT shares.
Analysis of markets with technical factors associated
For example, Expecting The Market Movement On A Particular Month By Technical Analysis Poses To Consider Atleast 10 Years Stock Market Movement Data On That Month, Finally Concluding The Average Or Most Happened Event Is Almost Repeatable That Month Of Present Year.
The Limiting Factors:
Technical analysis works many times, but entirely difference conditions under the Analyzing period acts as big limiting factor for the technical analysis of stock markets.
Another limiting factor is FII Trend Cannot Reflect The Market Technical Analysis, as they more prone Global Situations.
Theories Of Stock Market are assumptions of past, but also Technical analysis. So what’s the distinguishing factor? But the theories are pure experience based assumptions with evident of some success or failure. But analyzing also based on present situations along with highly probable expectations.
Technical analysis reflects intra-day and short-term market movement, but theories are long term market predictions. Technical analyzing changes time to time, but stock market theories are valid for long time intervals.
Technical Analysis And Outcomes: The technique technical analysis works superlative in many cases and in some special predictable sessions, but exceptional cases may be Sudden Crash Or Upper Circuit Sessions where technical merely fails.
Also the technique works mostly in cash rather than in future and options. Technical analysis based on chief considerable current factor, as Volatility Index forces a good success rate.
Our final suggestion is to trade according to your unique trading strategy, Technical analysis may a part of it. But never solely depend on it. Considering all possible factors, according to their Intensity Ratios to alter stock markets will regret a real success with technical analysis.
Institutional and retail investors effecting markets
Institutional Investors are large players in stock markets with financial supplementary basis, simply Able to Drive Stock Markets. The typical examples are Mutual Funds, Financial co-operations and Individual persons with good liquidity. If these institutional investors are of foreign they are called Foreign Institutional Investors. They are specially registered allowable institutional groups by SEBI.
Domestic Institutional Investors are Indian Mutual Funds or Insurance Policies investing in large amounts in stock markets like the LIC OF INDIA, UTI, ICICI, PARIDAS, RELIANCE, HDFC etc. They may be of governmental organizations.
Retail Investors are small Domestic Individual Investors with relatively small amounts of free liquidity. But, as all they constitute major group of investing category enforcing as liquidity as that of institutional investors.
But the Strategy Of Investment, Capability Variations, Aims of these categories are completely variable to each other category.
Retail investors had No Complete Concord, No Enough Familiarity, and Knowledge in financial markets. Most of they follow Stock Tips, Fii trends or some other services. Their network is Randomly Concentrated to either of Institutional Investors.
The foreign investment groups (FII”S) Follow A Different Strategy from domestic and they are highly risked, more regulated liquidity on global and own counties economic conditions. Mostly, Drive Stock Indices With Their Risky Future And Optional Investments.
Contrast, to foreign investors are domestic investors, even they have a hefty buying supplementary as Fii’s, but they never be only alternators of stock indices either on intra-day or long-term as they lack risk and more concerned with simple buying of shares in cash segment ultimately performing at no intense response for their investment strategy.
But in sense it is essential for an ideal stock analyzer to consider apart from global conditions, is Buying Power And Strategy Of Different Investment Groups of Foreign Institutional Investors, Domestic Institutions and Retail constituent Investors.
How Sentiment factors affect stock market indices
Sentiments Drove Stock market Indices:
As investors in stock markets is finance related issues traders are droved by both fears and greed. Most situations cause more conscious than real situations.
Rumors, the worst market terms inducing an intense downtrend in a specific stock or on the whole index. The Rumor is a Negative Sentiment Factor. Even it is not confirmed or even condemned by organization or company downtrend continues to fluctuate. Here the negative sentiment was strongly enforcing the minds of stock markets investors.
Opposite to above situation is the post election story, after UPA government completely in central government without left parties, made market traders displacing from positive sentiment to heavy positive sentiment plus crowd behavior plus higher greed all make markets to touch upper circuits.
Sentiment Issue Mostly Concerned For Retail Investors showing characteristic crowd behavior sometimes effect markets far beyond from actual stock market and economic position.
GREED AND FEAR are different terms from sentiment. Sentiment reflects near to actual situation, but also a technical pattern of investment.
India Traders And Sentiment:
In countries like India with investors of little or no knowledge on basics of stock markets, structurally sentiment completely depends on Fii’s outlook, funds marginal investments, and most brokers’ analysis.
Long-term view and investment:
But in justification, sentiment effects on long-term markets are negligible as company’s fundamentals not change daily like investors sentiments. So complete sentiment based strategy investors are likely antagonized for long-term investment.
In fact sentiment means belief which is an indirect term appearing likely unrelated to either stock markets, economy. But a major limiting agent directing stock indexes.
Finally sentiment alters stock markets, economy ultimately investors, but in an complex, interrelated, indirect fashion. Study and clear analytical based investment on it is likely more tedious, but huge profits with minimum risk
Correlation between Economy And Stock Markets
If a news analyzing how economy was gradually breaking down, why not it can arise fears in the stock market investors, same reason leads to disinvestments their share holdings and exercising option calls tendering a correction in stock markets.
Likewise Volatility and Continuous Corrections in stock markets indicate structural negotiations on national economic condition.
But in fact, above is not true in all cases as countries like America and other developed countries liquidity levels are high containing maximum available liquidity as stock markets investment, but developing countries had only small proportion of their total capital as stock markets investment.
““STOCK MARKETS REFLECTS REAL ECONOMY ONLY FOR HIGH INVESTMENT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES””
High investment countries experiences wider alterations in their liquidity available not much influence are economic countries with purposeful and protective investment measure in stock markets.
Taking example of sub-prime crisis occurred in America, leads economic imbalance but not economic breakdown, even through it presents feat in stock market trader and investors suggesting large stock market crash.
All Major Economic Factors Are Nothing But Stock Market Influences. Continuous trends happening in stock markets were more indicative of countries economy rather than intra-day volatility.
Essential Factors Of Economy:
The Financial Growth Rate of Country, GDP, Recession Concerns, Government control, Reserve Bank Liquidity considerations, Investors Support all are the essential factors for economy.
Minor Economic Factors, But Major Stock market Persuaders:
But reversibly stock indices are intimated by Institutional Investors including national and foreign investors, Retail investors, Greed and Fear, Rumors, low influence but highly popularized issues, Fraud in small companies etc. Are minor economic factors, but they may become stock market rulers for sufficient longer periods.
Alternatively stock markets are much based on sentiment and technical analyzing, which are not having any importance in economy of country.
what is Margin in trading, its uses, risks associated
Margin is a credit taken from our brokerage house for investment in stock markets by paying a little interest on it. Generally brokerages allow us to buy more stocks than our actual money, the extra money they provided should be returned along with additional interest. Brokerages use your actual money as surety for their credit.
Here is a simple example,
Consider a stock ‘X’ trading at Rs.100/-, if you have RS.10000/- in hand, got 10 stocks. But you are in great hope that stock will gain good profits. Then, how to buy more than 10 stocks with same money. Here margin plays role. Margin amount should be returned along with interest, brokerage will have no involvement over your profits or losses made.
Taking original investment Rs.10000/- as surety, your brokerage will give another Rs.10000/- as margin (amount of margin varies for different brokerages). Pretty!! 20 stocks with only 10000. Brokerages generally give large margin for intraday traders, and should be returned on the same day along with the interest.
If stocks gain profits, you get more than original profits. Unfortunately if end in losses, you get intense losses than original. Interest rate is addition in either of cases.
How it happens is:
-Consider an investor who taken margin, against his Rs.10000/- to buy 20 stocks each of value Rs.1000/-
1.Suppose stock price rises from 1000 to 1200, Rs.200 is profit on each share.
2.Then on 20 stocks, 20*200 = 4000
3.Here Rs.4000/- is profit.
Investor needs to pay back margin amount along with little interest. (Interest rate varies for different brokerages)
If the investor not utilized any margin he will got only 10 stocks and so profit will be only Rs.2000/-
All this is only one side of coin, ‘as like you got more profits if stock gains, also got more losses if stock price falls.
Suppose, if stock reached to Rs.800/-.
Loss without taking margin = Rs.2000/-
Loss with margin = Rs.4000/-
So if you taken margin, now your net balance will be = 10000-4000 = Rs.6000/-
If the stock price goes on decreasing, your net balance will decline at rapid rate, then the brokerage thinks can the investor can able to pay back our margin amount?
If price of stock reaches a threshold decline level, brokerage sells off all your shares (as they fear of there credit amount), deduct their original margin and interest.
At last you remained with penny balance in your account and no holding shares.
Here, margin-less trader is winner, as he had no fear of selling off by brokerage, he stays with his stocks in account and enjoy the recovery of stock if happens.
So, even though margin is a very useful tool, only utilizing it very careful with follow of a risk less strategy will be beneficial. Don’t take so large available margin, as any mis-happen make you to remain with empty balance.
Hedging Technique to protect our stock investments
Hedge means protection. Hedging in investment terminology means ‘A technique followed to protect the investment against the risk’ involved in stock markets.
Stock market investments are in general risky, it turns even more risky when we invest in high risk shares, derivatives etc. Hence it would be better to follow a suitable hedging technique, based on our category of risk. In general hedging includes buying other types of shares or other securities (like derivatives, gold) to protect from probable risk in our actual investment.
Below are some examples of hedging:-
-Small cap companies have high growth opportunity and when succeeded they make investors huge profits. At the same time small caps may not have strong fundamentals and compromise of high risk. So, some blue chip stocks like reliance, infosys, tata group companies etc should be bought along with small caps.
-Pharma, health care, bank and PSU stocks are hedges for high-risk reality, IT, and related service sector stocks.
-‘Options’ of derivatives segment can be used to hedge against risk of stock market fall.
-Dividend yield stocks are best for constant returns, can be hedged against non-dividend yielding active stocks.
Even though hedging technique is used to insurance our main investments; it should be carefully done, such that ‘hedging should not neutralize your profits’.
For example, consider two pharma companies, one is of manufacturing synthetic cancer treating drugs and other company which manufactures natural cancer treating agents. Now buying shares of both companies is a good example of hedging. Suppose, if popularity of synthetic agents is increasing, synthetic drug company profits and ultimately its stock prices will fall. But now we are hedged with other natural drugs company, its profits raises and risk from first company will be covered. But here some factors are considerable:
-The net profit earned by you is almost neutral.
-Only rise in capital of sector i.e. cancer treating drugs here, only will give you good profits.
So always use ‘hedging technique for shares with the future scope of the sector rather than companies, especially if both are operating in same compotator business.
In my opinion, the best hedging tools are Derivatives (F&O) and active stocks.
Because if your main investment is one lakh, your hedging investment should be pretty less than 1 lakh, but can protect all your 1lakh. How to achieve this? Simple buying some very active stocks, options, or futures. For example, you invested 1 lakh total as long-term portfolio; buy some options or futures that profitable if stock markets fall (worth atleast 10,000). If really markets hugely fall your 1 lakh will become 50,000. than your options or futures hugely gains and may become 50,000, based on intensity of fall. so, here you successfully protected entire 1 lakh with only 10,000.
Hedging Technique to protect our stock investments
Small cap companies have high growth opportunity and when succeeded they make investors huge profits. At the same time small caps may not have strong fundamentals and compromise of high risk. So, some blue chip stocks like reliance, infosys, tata group companies etc should be bought along with small caps.
-Pharma, health care, bank and PSU stocks are hedges for high-risk reality, IT, and related service sector stocks.
-‘Options’ of derivatives segment can be used to hedge against risk of stock market fall.
-Dividend yield stocks are best for constant returns, can be hedged against non-dividend yielding active stocks.
Even though hedging technique is used to insurance our main investments; it should be carefully done, such that ‘hedging should not neutralize your profits’.
For example, consider two pharma companies, one is of manufacturing synthetic cancer treating drugs and other company which manufactures natural cancer treating agents. Now buying shares of both companies is a good example of hedging. Suppose, if popularity of synthetic agents is increasing, synthetic drug company profits and ultimately its stock prices will fall. But now we are hedged with other natural drugs company, its profits raises and risk from first company will be covered. But here some factors are considerable:
-The net profit earned by you is almost neutral.
-Only rise in capital of sector i.e. cancer treating drugs here, only will give you good profits.
So always use ‘hedging technique for shares with the future scope of the sector rather than companies, especially if both are operating in same compotator business.
In my opinion, the best hedging tools are Derivatives (F&O) and active stocks.
Because if your main investment is one lakh, your hedging investment should be pretty less than 1 lakh, but can protect all your 1lakh. How to achieve this? Simple buying some very active stocks, options, or futures. For example, you invested 1 lakh total as long-term portfolio; buy some options or futures that profitable if stock markets fall (worth atleast 10,000). If really markets hugely fall your 1 lakh will become 50,000. than your options or futures hugely gains and may become 50,000, based on intensity of fall. so, here you successfully protected entire 1 lakh with only 10,000.
Meaning & Best followable Stock market strategies
A strategy is a ‘Complicated mix of technical analysis, present market mood, logical expectations’ that we should select based on ‘Our risk tolerance capacity’ and ‘Time period of investment’
Intraday investor strategies:
An intraday investor would have high-risk capability but he aims at large profits within short periods, so he opts for intraday strategies that include ‘Buying and selling of shares with targets and stop losses’. His strategy includes active and risky stocks, no bother on companies’ fundamentals.
But the aim of a long-term investor is entirely different,
Long-term investor strategies:
Long term investor strategy includes ‘Companies that have strong fundamentals along with good future scope, no bother on intraday activity’. Also shares from different sectors (like Auto, Pharma, IT etc..) with in-depth analysis on every company fundamentals.
There are numerous types of strategies like rumor based, budget based, foreign markets, derivatives, technicals based, sector and stock specific news etc for intraday or short term investors and based on future opportunities of sector, expected companies performance, immix of different sector stocks strategies for long term investors. We discuss about every strategies on later pages of the blog.
Rumor based: where the traders logically deal with stocks that effected by rumors. For example, short-selling rumor stock for intraday would give large profits, and buying the same stock at deep bottom for long term is a right decision.
Foreign markets based: due to globalization all economies of many countries are connected, so of stock markets. Hence the movement of foreign stock markets, especially U.S and European markets will definitely influence Indian stock markets. Some traders will purely trade based on global news and their market movements.
Budgets based: during the day and some days before the announcements of countries or railway budgets, active stock market traders have a real opportunity. Following a strategy based on Rumors, clues, and expectations of budget is many times profitable for short-term investors. On the budget announcement day, working on stock investments according to live news was really helpful of intraday traders.
Government decisions: government decisions like bailout packages; disinvestments from PSU companies will affect stock markets. Strategy can be followed for these. For example, announcement of disinvestments from a particular PSU company, leads to rise in its stock price, but after completion of disinvestments process? Definitely fall.
RBI decisions: strategy spread based on RBI interest or Repo rates is very much profitable for intraday. Say, market expected interest rate deduction (positive news) from RBI during its board meeting day. But RBI had taken a neutral decision towards it, even though stock markets fall because it initially raised expecting good news. Expecting the same case before announcement was a great opportunity of profit for intraday traders.
Important numbers: that relates to stock markets like GDP numbers, industrial growth rates, inflation rates, American job data, economic surveys by media all effect the stock markets and suitable strategy followed basing on expected condition is profitable.
Technical analysis strategies: stock markets will have resistance at 18000 points and have support at 17000 points, like these analysis’s based on past stock market movements will also some times work. But strategies based on technical analysis’s are most popular and most following.
Day of announcement of quarterly results of company: based on expectations of probable quarterly results that company may announce and following a strategy basing on it, will profitable if real case anticipate us.
Like these there are numerous situations in stock markets, which will surely profit you if followed adequate strategies.